Trump Wins New York - CNN Admits He Still Can't Get To 1237
By: Jack Hammer - TapWires News Service
Hooray Our Guy Won - the resounding chorus from the Donald and the Trumpettes. You can tell when a candidate has been in a real slump - his fans go absolutely bonkers - when all he did was meet expectations.
And to all that hoopla I say, 'Well of course he won for crying out loud.' IT WAS THE NEW YORK PRIMARY! Did anyone expect any less. Trump spent a lot of time and money to make sure he wasn't embarrassed in his own back yard. He cancelled numerous campaign trips. He campaigned hard, used every dirty trick in the book including cutting off the mic at the Cruz speech during the New York Gala. But none of that made any difference Trump was going to win period.
Shamelessly, of course Trump is using the same "tactics" he accuses Cruz of using all the time. He played by the party rules and won more delegates than the vote should have allowed - which to Trump supporters is cheating - unless Trump benefits. Capturing only 60% of the vote Trump garnered 94 percent of the delegates. How can that happen? It’s time for a riot in Cleveland - We will expose every Trump delegate's hotel and room number they'll pay for this - oh wait - sorry I was channeling a Trump supporter for a moment. I’ve returned to sanity.
This is the nonsense that spews from the trump crowd every time Trump loses a primary or a delegate (except for the returning to sanity part) ... which has been a lot lately. So CNN not wanting to miss out on the Trump gravy train decided they would enlist John King at the magic vote board and show how the YUGE New York Victory will propel Trump to the nomination. Unfortunately for John King the darn facts got in the way and his best efforts, failed pretty quickly.
Now you know why "the Donald" and so many of his Trumpettes are whining about Cruz following the rules and snatching delegates. They know that the road to 1237 is, if not completely closed is very nearly impossible to travel. With the New York Win Trump is still only in the mid 40's as a winning percentage. He will have to almost double that to over to have a shot at 1237 and that assumes that the Cruz campaign completely collapses.
You can count on one thing and that is this. Trump will become more enraged and even more insane as with each passing primary because each primary will obviate that 1237 is slipping further from his grasp. Trump knows that a second ballot in Cleveland is not going to work in his favor and that each successive ballot will get worse until finally he joins Walker, Rubio, Fiorina, and all the others he dispatched to the same burial site of the politically fallen he sent them too.
In case you are interested here are some numbers that might help make sense of the remaining primaries. These are provided by the CEO of TapWires.com. His analysis is provided based on cold hard numbers not an obvious political bias. If there is any generosity displayed it is toward Mr. Trump - giving him some very generous delegate counts.
In this article also notice that these numbers assume that Mr. Trump will win all 95 delegates in New York.
politics, Media, Donald Trump, Elections, Cruz, Campaigns, Delegates, Convention, Cleveland
Is 1237 Still Possible - Here Are The Cold Hard Numbers For Both Candidates
Is there a possibility that Senator Cruz will hit the magic 1237? In a word … no. Cruz is a tactician and is more than content fighting a delaying action. His goal is simple - stop Trump short of 1237 and live to fight on to a second ballot. Cruz had a very slow start, he to develop name recognition, fight off a host of candidates like Walker, Rubio, Fiorina, Carson and others. Because of the direct competition he faced he has gotten only about 31% of the delegates. Most of his competition has now disappeared but much to his consternation Governor Kasich has entered the race and is taking twice as many votes from Cruz as he is from Trump. But Cruz is on the ascendancy having won 152 out of the last 160 delegates up for grabs. That a winning percentage in the last five contests approaching 95%.
Obviously, Cruz will not maintain that kind of momentum but it safe to assume that he may well raise his percentage to 38% to 40% which would be an increase of 22% in the last third of the contests. If does, he will go to the convention with 840 delegates. The potential for Cruz to up his game by 22% is far more likely than the possibility of Mr. Trump increasing his percentage to 55% based upon past primaries, where he is yet to break 50%. Obviously, New York his home, state gives him the best opportunity of breaking that limit. Should he do so he would take home all 95 of the state’s delegates.
There will be approximately 150 uncommitted delegates at the convention. As you recall we awarded 50 of those free agents to Trump that leaves about 100 for Cruz. With those delegates Cruz comes in with a total of 940 delegates. That coupled with delegates of other campaigns who are committed to “other than Trump” makes it very unlikely that Trump will win on the first ballot. And of course if Cruz wins any of the winner take all states between here and California and has even a reasonable showing in CA, Trump will be effective blocked for any hopes of a win on the first ballot.
That is of course when things get dicey for Trump and Cleveland becomes a real battle ground. Here is why. At that point in the convention the Rubio delegates who despise Mr. Trump will be released. That delegate pool of approximately 168 delegates, will probably migrate in mass and form under the Cruz banner. That would increase his total to 1108.
Additionally, on the second ballot about 60% of the delegates will be free to vote any way they choose. That frees up 1500 delegates minus the Rubio group - leaving about 1332 delegates. Remember the ground game Cruz has put together? While Trump did nothing but seek the popular vote, Cruz was busy electing slate after slate of Cruz delegates even in states where Trump won, who were committed to Trump on the first ballot, but now are free and have no obligation to Trump after and share an affinity to Cruz? Having been elected on a Cruz slate of candidates they will make a B-line for their candidate of choice, Ted Cruz for ballot two. Out of that 1332 delegates Senator Cruz will only need only 10% to defect to his camp – which some say is almost a certainty – and Cruz could win with some margin to spare on the second ballot.
Will the delegates behave just the way we have predicted. Probably not. There is a lot of campaign between now and Cleveland.
The real question is simple – does Cruz have the ability to stop Trump, by doing fairly well in California, can he pull out a surprise showing in one state along the way and of somewhat less importance is this, can he stop Trump from getting 50% plus one in New York. Remember even a large win in New York leaves Mr. Trump vulnerable in in PA where he is only guaranteed 17 delegates. The others are left for an at large vote by district. With the Cruz ground game in Pennsylvania, there is bound to be some Trump slippage and some delegates will slip through his hands. With a well-organized Cruz slate of delegates in pro Cruz districts Cruz may well pick up 25% to 35% of delegates. Remember these delegates are not elected by the state wide vote, but rather by the popular vote for a delegate in each congressional district. So winning the PA vote only guarantees Trump 17 delegates.
Additionally, there are a number of states like South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska that will go heavily for Cruz. Currently there are 733 remaining delegates and out of that number of 733 remaining delegates over 100 will end up in the Cruz camp in the afore mentioned states, leaving in reality only 633 delegates up for grabs. That of course has a dramatic effect on the percentage needed for Mr. Trump to attain his 484 additional delegates. From that point on he will need to win approximately 77% of all remaining delegates.
Assuming that the Cruz campaign doesn’t collapse completely manages to pick up even 33% of the California delegates or about 60 delegates and Kasich picks up as few as 10 delegates, Trump would have to win more than 90% of all remaining delegates in all races including California. Mr. Trump would need to shut Cruz out in Indiana where there are 30 delegates to the winner state-wide but 27 delegates allocated by district. Trump would need to take 52 of the 57 total. Trump would need to secure 31 of the 34 delegates in West Virginia. In Connecticut Trump would have to take 26 out of 28 delegates.
From this perspective, it is easy to see that this is to say the least, a daunting task to expect a candidate to be that dominant in that many primaries over that period of time even if the east though coast primaries favor him. It is akin to climbing Mt. Everest barefoot with no guide.